Treading into 2023

Well, the New Year (2023) has started.
I know the market seems to be walking on egg shells - lots of uncertainty in the air.

  • The one bet I have not felt uncomfortable about is Brazilian Beer Bet [BBB], aka Ambev SA (ABEV). In the two trading days of 2023, I have doubled my ABEV stake, and monitoring for further weakness.
  • Dumped most of BDRY on the price bounce today.
  • Added to AAPL today.
  • Watching FRO pull back. I don’t mind that because it is inching down to a level where I might consider a nibble. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and its effects on other economies e.g. Europe, China & India, will continue to impact the tanker sector (both clean and dirty)
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Slow motion Deja Vu
The first two days of 2023 I have bumped up my ABEV stake - same as in 2022. Today (01/05/23), I have added to FLNG stake - same as in 2022.
Hmm??
Does that mean I should be looking at AY and DDOG next? Those were also ideas that got additional purchases in early 2022

Actually, I am wrestling with a VATE decision - add or wait?

Late in the trading day, added to AY position- slow motion Deja Vu continues.
Reasoning/logic: AY is a utility, a defensive type idea and fits in my long term strategy. Though I have some AY shares in the green, overall AY is red. In the medium-term, the purchase could be viewed as “replacement” shares

On the sudden pull-back, conventional tanker sector looks appealing - Torm (TRMD), INSW & FRO - all on the radar. The first two, primarily, the clean products angle, and with FRO, the mid-size tankers

Had done this in Dec 2022 too - trimmed GOGL on a bounce. Repeated the process today (01/06/23).
Taxable account, small loss (with div, overall gain). Early in the year, if shares get washed, I can live with that outcome.

Small nibbles - BNS (for dividend ac) and GSM

01/09
Feeling a lot more adventurous and optimistic today

  • Another ABEV nibble
  • A VZ nibble
  • Dumped SPI runt position on price bounce
  • Nibbled on INSW
  • Added to PDT
  • Added to NAT
  • Added to VATE

01/09 continued

  • GSL price bounce had me dump about half my stake. It seemed like a good time to reset. It covers multiple individual transactions- some positive, some negative
  • More PFE for div basket
  • Trimmed GOGL again
  • More VZ for Roth ac
    Significant %? Sales & purchases combined about 2.3%

01/10
Trimmed SBLK, after prior trims of GSL * GOGL.

GOGL issued a Press release on share buybacks.
https://www.goldenocean.bm/press-release/3519/gogl-transactions-made-under-the-buy-back-program-2/

  • Shares purchased is not significant.

  • After currency translation, that works out to $8.07/sh. If nothing else, that average gives an independent suggestion as to the value of GOGL shares are. Now, I wait for GOGL shares to retrace to those levels,

  • Prior days this week, had considered whether I should trim the taxable ac CPNG stake. Didn’t … paid for that indecision :frowning:

  • OTOH, good call on VATE nibble

01/13
Week 2 of the new year comes to a close.

Maybe I’m wrong to trim some dry bulk shippers here. But, the signs for dry bulk shipping are not positive so far. Today’s (01/13) news

Right – so the BDI is as low as during the Covid-19 pandemic period, and there is likely more downward pressure to come (at least, till after the Chinese New Year). Stay the course, add conventional tanker names if I
need shipping replacement options.

01/17
Still happening- trimming dry bulk shipping stakes as respective shares prices head higher

  • SBLK trim (taxable ac)

  • GNK trim (taxable ac)

  • SBLK trim (Roth ac)
    and a non-shipping trim

  • TKLF trim (Roth ac)

  • AY bounce - Yay!

Thru 01/20

  • More small decisions wrt trimming dry bulk shipping stake (SBLK, GNK, GOGL)
  • More PDT
  • More QCOM in Roth
  • Going in, I knew I was little late jumping into NAT (a FOMO move). Timely trim (and partial wash) saves me some change today. Early in the year, NAT shares can be washed next week
  • GLNG trim, Could be a wash next week.
  • More ABEV (Roth ac, this time)

Thru 01/25

  • Washed NAT. Guess I should have waited :wink:
  • Another ENTG nibble
  • TRMD kept falling - nibbled today’
  • Another CPNG nibble