Treading into 2023

@physician - FLNG paid its regular $0.75/sh, plus a special div of $0.25/sh for Q4 2022. I suspect, near term, FLNG will continue to do something similar.

@physician - Might look at QYLD. Do you use it as a hedge? Had been thinking of covered calls in a couple of holdings - AY comes to mind, FLNG trading a little lower was another,

3/10
Was outdoors the last few days, and had to evacuate camp at 3 AM today. That puts things in perspective with weather, port developments and the other big news item - collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB). Heard brief news of SIVB on 03/09/23 and it came totally out-of-the-blue.

Generally unrelated, but now I’m glad I monetized some of my VATE. They did finally get paid for the HMN put. So, they have a little extra cash (about $30M) to utilize. Also, glad I monetized some of my GSM. Though there are definitely more positive developments going on with GSM (debt pay-down, plant developments, etc)

Another FRO nibble in Roth ac.

3/13
Watching two items today

  1. How the market would react to the weekend events to contain the SIVB damage
  2. ZIM results.

There were probably some jitters - I mean, the First Republic (FRC) tumble was nasty. It seemed a little of mixed bag as to how some stocks responded.

Regarding ZIM, they certainly surprised. Volume did not drop as much, rev dropped, but ZIM still earned money. Finally, the planned payout was a surprise- a big surprise. Will still trim most/all ZIM in Roth ac prior to ex-div. I’m guessing that vol today (03/13) included some shorts covering.

Another FRO nibble.

3.14 Pi Day 2023 :slight_smile:
Multiple posts on SA about ZIM’s last hurrah i,e, the end of big payouts from ZIM. One was posted prior to the earnings release, which leaves that author with a lot of egg on their face. A second author, got very defensive in responding to comments (I didn’t say sell). Post-dividend payout, ZIM have around $2.9B in cash. That offers a decent runway for the container market to sort out its recovery.

  • More IEP (taxable account)
  • More BNS (Roth ac)
  • More QCOM (Roth ac)

After market close, VATE reported Q4 results. Comment - Meh! Infrastructure, by far the largest of three segments, has < 2% margins. Will have to read the transcript to see if there’s any positives.

03/15
Ok, this was a knee-jerk reaction to VATE’s results and bank jitters - dumped a big chunk of my VATE shares.

Another ZIM high-dividend-is-over post on SA. Saved myself time & effort by NOT reading (especially when I see that silly container index chart). Sure, ZIM hold the 10th spot among liner companies and less than 3% of the container fleet. But, they are a liner company, which means their business is less tied to an index. Short term the primary stat is 04/04/23.

FRO trades ex-div today.

03/20

  • Another GSM nibble
  • First NMM nibble in over 13 months
  • First SBLK transaction since Jan 2023.
  • Another RA nibble

Another ZIM article - this one more on the lines of - don’t miss out, jump in before the ship sails (pun intended). Meanwhile, author is safe on shore.
Me, waiting a little while longer before I trim.

I was looking at GOGL and noticed the nasdaq changed the way they are doing dividend yield. They are taking the current dividend and extrapolating it out over the year. The last 4 quarters dividend totals $1.65 for a 17.62% dividend over the last 12 months…doc

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@physician - been aware of the issue on the shipping side. Over in the SeekingAlpha world, the more informed posters use the term “variable dividend”. The owners/mgmt of some dry bulk companies e.g. SBLK, GNK even say, here is the framework for calculating our dividend. Extending that further, one can see how the dividend will be different across reporting quarters.

Or another option, pay a fixed dividend quarterly and add a special dividend every now and then e.g. FLNG, INSW. From that perspective, INSW can claim a huge annual dividend gain, over the last couple of years.

Remainder of week 03/21 - 03/24

  • After watching banking entity First Republic (FRC) for about a week, I decided to nibble
  • Another ENTG nibble
  • Another FRO nibble
  • A QYLD nibble
  • Another ZIM nibble

03/27

  • More GSM in Roth ac
  • Restarted VATE in Taxable ac
  • Whee! The fun starts with FRC - 30% bounce to start the day, but it tailed off very quickly (within 15 - 20 min). Ended with a 11% bounce - not bad

03/29/23
Decided to shift focus. Stuff on the periphery needs to be reduced

  • 3/28/23 Trimmed GSL
  • 3/29/23 Trimmed DIS
  • 3/29/23 On bounce, exit GNK
  • 3/29/23 Initial steps in acknowledging ZIM Roth bloodbath. Trimmed today

Came across this SA article–
Confounded’s Complete All-Weather Portfolio Revealed | Seeking Alpha

Though it might be helpful to try and partition my self-managed portfolio into segments, I have often found it challenging to do so. Especially, that which the above author refers to as “aggressive portfolio”. I mean, to some degree, maybe the shipping basket could be viewed as an aggressive port. But then, I have holdings like FLNG and TNP-E in there that serve a different purpose. To a lesser degree, so does some of the GOGL & SBLK.

But I do get what the author is trying to do. For me, “all-weather” translates to-- GARP-type ideas that might every now and then sell at a discount. That is the BHP, the NVDA-restart, CPNG, MRVL, and more recently ENTG. Then there’s the existing holdings that get cheaper e.g. GSM, ABEV.

Still good food-for-thought to build the discipline of one’s plan

04/03
If one has an interest in tankers, today was a good day to enter the sector. If an existing investor in the sector, then a chance to add to their stake, I ended up doing both, Nibbled on new idea - CLCO. The NAT slap-down allowed me to restart NAT at lower than (exit price - div). Also, added to FRO. Unsure about C3 (AI), so I realized the Roth ac gains. Then used some of the proceeds to buy more “beaten up TSLA”. Capital recycling - oh, ZIM was trimmed prior to the dividend (set for tomorrow)

04/04
OPEC+ planned reduction decision doesn’t bother me too much. The supply side of the conventional tanker market is quite low. Since IMO rules have come into play in 2023, the more affected owners are those with older tonnage. If supply side cuts occur, then charterers will likely be more picky on the tonnage used. But, even that is not a given, The older tonnage could likely find business, or at least, some business, in the Russian embargo trades. To make my point, I actually purchased more TRMD today. And watched NAT

04/06
So there was a CLCO nibble to start the week. Two nibbles yesterday. And one more today. In some ways, CLCO seems to be in a similar place as FLNG was, 15-16 months ago. Some combination of medium and short term charter coverage, and vessels rolling off charter in the near term. The slight difference - FLNG had more spot trading vessels back then. Back then, I had an existing FLNG stake, and I slowly added to the stake in nibbles. Can CLCO complete a similar layering strategy? Seems like it is viable. CLCO have lower debt per vessel than FLNG. But, given FLNG newer fleet, that seems understandable.

Added more NAT today too.

04/10
Had made an attempt to buy First Republic Preferred shares in March 2023, and attempt did not go transpire. Subsequent attempts did not allow me to complete a buy transaction. Now, I am pleased those attempts failed. Dividend on the Preferred shares has been halted.

First Republic faces ‘Hobson’s choice’: analyst (yahoo.com)

Okay, I guess I should close the FRC common share stake too

04/12
Over the last few weeks, Brazilian Beer Bet aka ABEV has been quite active. On today’s bounce, I trimmed my ABEV stake. Still like the idea, with a $3.15 - $3.20 target. More GSM on its pull-back.

CPI Inflation rate is trending the direction that the market wants. The market had a broad move up in response to this positive news…doc

@physician - Not feeling the love on 04/12. Not overly tech heavy, just that my Top 10 hardly budged.